UDPATE, 12:17p: Latest whip count from FireDogLake.com
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10:58a: From Politico last night:
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Rep. Jason Altmire, a PA Democrat who has positioned himself as a key swing vote, said he thinks leadership is seriously struggling to marshal the votes.
“They’re calling the hardnosed people… who have put out firm statements saying no,” he said. “They wouldn’t be doing that if they were anywhere close.”

From The Hill last night:

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) said Monday he thinks House Democratic leaders are not close to having the votes to pass health reform….

In an interview with Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren, the anti-abortion rights lawmaker said, “I’d be surprised if they have 200 votes.”
House Democratic leaders need 216 to pass the bill.

From CNN this morning

Even as a top House Democrat expressed confidence in passing legislation to overhaul health care, a new CNN analysis shows that opposition in the House of Representatives to the Senate health care plan has reached 200 members….

That figure is 16 votes shy of the 216 needed to prevent President Obama from scoring a major victory on his top domestic priority.
22 Democrats, including 7 who supported the House plan in November, have indicated they would join a unified House Republican caucus in opposing the Senate plan….
Nonetheless, after a meeting with rank-and-file Democrats, House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson of CT told reporters Monday that “the votes are there” to pass the health care bill….
Proponents of the health care plan need 216 votes to pass the Senate plan. No Republicans have indicated they will vote for the bill, which means Democratic leaders must rely solely on votes from their own members. Democrats hold 253 House seats.
Of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House plan in November, 15 have indicated they will vote against the Senate plan as written, 12 remain uncommitted and 10 did not return repeated calls from CNN.
One lawmaker, Rep. Parker Griffith of AL, became a Republican in December. An additional member, Rep. Eric Massa of NY, resigned his seat last week.
2 top Republican vote counters, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl of AZ and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of VA, released a memo last week, saying that a relatively small number of Democrats hold a tremendous amount of sway on the issue.
“We believe House passage of the Senate’s health care bill will ultimately be decided by the 37 remaining House Democrats who voted no to a government takeover last November, and the… 21 House Democrats who originally voted yes, but may now be on the fence,” they wrote.
CNN contacted a number of House Democrats who voted in favor of the House bill in November and who also represent conservative or competitive districts. Of those, Reps. Michael Arcuri of NY, Marion Berry of AR, Tim Bishop of NY, Gabrielle Giffords of AZ, Daniel Lipinski of IL and Bart Stupak of MI said they would vote against the Senate bill as written but said they would consider supporting it with significant changes.
A 7th lawmaker, Rep. Luis Gutierrez of IL, said he would vote against the bill outright….

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