President elected in 2012 will likely swing the US Supreme Court one way or the other – for a very long time
Curt Levey of the Committee for Justice blog always writes insightful pieces. His op ed in The Hill yesterday was yet another one. An excerpt:
The electoral focus on judges in 2012 will not be misplaced. The ages of several Supreme Court Justices and the closely divided makeup of the Court means that its ideological balance – and with it, the fate of gay marriage, abortion, illegal immigration and the like – could swing wildly in either direction after 2012.
By 2016, Justices Scalia and Kennedy will be 80 years old. If we assume a 50% chance of each man serving through 2016 – better odds than life expectancy and disability tables tell us to expect – there is only a 25% probability that both men will do so.
That leaves President Obama, if re-elected, a 75% chance of establishing on the High Court a dependable liberal majority certain to satisfy many of progressives’ pent-up dreams.
On the other hand, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has had pancreatic and colon cancer and will turn 83 in 2016. With four conservatives already on the Court, electing a Republican president in 2012 might very well mean the first solid conservative majority on the High Court in 75 years. The conservative Justices would no longer need to court Kennedy’s swing vote. Abortion on demand, affirmative action, restrictions on the death penalty, and enemy combatants’ access to civilian courts would likely fall by the wayside.
Every presidential election I can remember has been deemed by pundits as “the most important election in our lifetime.” I remember agreeing with that statement a couple of times, particularly in 2008. But as for 2012, Curt’s point really resonates.
Of course, there are many unforeseen circumstances. Ginsburg could see the writing on the wall re: Obama’s political fortunes and resign in 2011 for her ideology’s sake, allowing enough time for him to replace her. Don’t forget she was an ACLU attorney. Her ideology runs deep.
… Although that would still net liberals four, giving the president elected in 2012 a 75% chance of nominating two justices that fit his or her belief system, cementing that belief system in the Supreme Court for a very long time.
Jill Stanek is a nurse turned speaker, columnist and blogger, a national figure in the effort to protect both preborn and postborn innocent human life.
Unfortunately, the SCOTUS will remain all too busy since inferior courts all too often get it wrong the first time around.
It’s worth considering that lower federal courts matter just as much.
It is certainly essential that president Obama be re-elected.
It is certainly essential that president Obama be re-elected *so that folks like me can continue to have our children whom we have deemed “inconvenient” killed legally.
There. Finished your thought for ya, buddy.
Hal, as the Luke Skywalker told the Emperor in Return of the Jedi “Your overconfidence is your weakness”
Obama has done nothing to create jobs or to keep jobs IN THE USA. He continues to push abortion and contraception as if they were miracle cures. Stop drinking the kool aid.
Liz – Stop watching FOX news… So i guess that single handedly saving the entire American auto industry didn’t save any jobs? and on the subject of jobs, how many jobs has Obama sent overseas? and how many jobs have been sent overseas by the “job creators”? So who is killing jobs in the USA?
So far Obama has put two more females on the Supreme Court. One Latino lady and one gay lady. I wonder who he will put in next after he wins his second term? I hope it is a Muslim.
Tax the Rich!!!
Ever notice that every issue that republicans champion is always a scared rich white guy issue?
Immigration, tax reform, environmental, health care, same sex marriages, tort reform, and even election reform. Somehow they are always on the side of the scared rich white guy…
sorry double post
Are people actually looking forward to LESS restrictions on the death penalty. Certainly not me.
I mean OTHER jobs….not just the auto industry. When someone calls customer service for something related to an American company, they should get someone who doesn’t sound like they are from India…and I don’t mean an immigrant who was born in India and moved to the USA…I mean someone that LIVES in India. And I mean MORE jobs, not just the auto industry.
its well known that some US companies have sent their manufacturing overseas because labor is cheaper.. And some companies use overseas for their customer service instead of using citizens in the USA.
We need justices that actually know what the Constitution says, not what they THINK it says. And it doesn’t say there’s a universal right to health care OR the universal right to kill a baby in the womb!
This is why elections matter. The consequences are far-reaching, and the importance of this election cannot be overstated. Obama MUST be sent packing! One Obama term has been one too many. For the sake of our nation, we must elect a new president.
Hal: “It is certainly essential that president Obama be re-elected.”
Whoa! So what happens when he’s not? With essentiality going AWOL, will the universe implode?
Biggz: Tax the rich? Delusion:
Video version: http://goo.gl/Ss7V6
Read it: http://goo.gl/PdtN1
Thanks for being the voice of reason so much, Biggz!
With essentiality going AWOL, will the universe implode?
The depression will occur regardless of whether Obama is re-elected.
Anyone, such as yourself, aware enough to know that Obama is a corporatist, should also know that a collapse is already baked in the cake and has been since September 2008.
It certainly is true that the next election has implications for generations to come. A liberal court is unthinkable. The problem is can we trust President Romney to appoint true conservatives in the mode of Scalia, Roberts, Alito, and Thomas. I sure hope so.
We have seen how our sociopath president thinks and acts. One might say he is our first new age president who sees homosexuality and abortion as fundamental rights, truly great things that liberate people. There is nothing Obama has a deeper passion for then these two issues and he will exercise the full powers of the presidency in support of them.
The hard core leftist supporters of Obama applaud his directives and choices because they are as morally and intellectually bankrupt as he is. Of course they cannot see themselves for what they have become any more than a fish can imagine life outside of water. The important thing to them is to get Obama re-elected and happily continue to reshape our country and culture to that of a new society fashioned in the image of atheism and moral relativism.
The problem is can we trust President Romney
Fixed for ya. Man, you guys really need to start better proofreading your posts more carefully.
Romney = Romneycare = $50 copay for abortions.
He’s no better than any democrat. I sincerely hope I will not be forced to vote for him in 2012. Here’s hoping for Herman Cain.
Liz, I have a friend from India who is here working legally in the States. Even HE is annoyed that jobs at his American company are being outsourced to India! He hates calling a customer service number and getting someone in India!
The only real mistake obama has made is to waste time and effort trying to compromise with people who don’t know what compromise means.
His opponents just want everything absolutely their own way, acting like spoilt children. And they’ve been like that since the moment he was sworn in.
Obama held out an olive branch and it was smacked out of his hand.
The more he rejects the republican agenda and the harder he pursues his own, the better off he’ll be. And so will the rest of us.
Umm . . . I think it was Obama who said “I won. I will trump you on that” during a putatively bipartisan meeting — almost the moment he took office.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/01/23/obama-to-gop-i-won/
So in 2010, the Republicans won the Congress.
That’s how politics works.
I’m really looking forward to seeing how politics works in 2012, now that he’s doubling down just about as you’re suggesting he should. Independents are going to have his lunch.
Rasqual,
It doesn’t get much funnier than T. Coddington van Vorhees VII!
mp,
A depression is certain? Perhaps you’ve been following Glenn Beck too!
Reality,
Rasqual is absolutely right, as usual. Obama the Great Compromiser? Have you been vacationing on another planet? He didn’t even meet with opposition leaders for the first year and a half! McConnell was never invited to the White House, while labor leaders were practically part of the furniture.
He plowed ahead with the stimulus and healthcare bills with no opposition support or input. His olive branch? Sit down and shut up!
Yes rasqual, he is indeed going to have to be more strident and abundantly clear.
The independants couldn’t cut his lunch.
It’s not just Fox any more.
The only holdouts for Obama these days are those angry freaks from MSNBC. He is indefensible. This is what you get for electing a child-symbol instead of a man.
Herman Cain in 2012. I eagerly await a debate between Cain and Obama. Obama will end up hurling his lunch.
A depression is certain? Perhaps you’ve been following Glenn Beck too!
Ideologically speaking, I have about as much in common with Glenn Beck as I have with Mao Tse Tung. I’m a businessman, a trained financial analyst, and can’t afford to engage in ideology. I engage the reality of the marketplace and am actually fairly good at it. My world is balance sheets and flow of funds reports, not the opinion pages.
So, I guess everyone should do their own due diligence. :)
“Obama will end up hurling his lunch” – because he will have eaten one of Herman’s pizzas?
Liz – quick question – you say there shouldn’t be a universal right to health care – are you saying they should overturn the Emergency Medical Care act?
Reality, if Obama is defeated handily, will you please change your nick to “Delusion”?
Meh. Not likely rasqual :-)
There would be even more of an imperative that the truth is shared.