David Dayen at FireDogLake.com is tracking healthcare votes pretty OCD-edly. And here are his last 4 days’ headlines, which don’t bode well for Obamacare’s passage in the House…
Whip Count, healthcare, abortion.png
Michael Barone at the Wall Street Journal did the math from another direction but reached a similar conclusion today…

The arithmetic as I see it doesn’t add up.
The House passed its version of the health bill in November by 220-215. Of those 220, 1 was a Republican who now is a no. 1 Democrat who voted yes has died, 2 Democrats who voted yes have resigned, and 1 Democrat who voted no has resigned as well. So if everyone but the Republican votes the way they did 4 months ago, the score would be 216-215.

health care corral.jpg

But not everyone is ready to vote that way. The House bill included an amendment prohibiting funding of abortions sponsored by MI Democrat Bart Stupak. The Senate bill did not. Mr. Stupak says he and 10 to 12 other members won’t vote for the Senate bill for that reason. Others have said the same, including MN’s James Oberstar, chairman of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, and Dan Lipinski, a product of the Chicago Democratic machine.
Mrs. Pelosi may have some votes in reserve – members who would have voted yes if she needed them in November and would do so again. But we can be pretty sure she doesn’t have more than 10, or she wouldn’t have allowed the Stupak amendment to come forward at the last minute the first time. She also might get 1 or 2 votes from members who voted no and later announced they were retiring.
But that’s not enough – and there are other complications….

Meanwhile the Associated Press is reporting tonight the Dems finally get the Life issue cannot be compromised…

House Democratic leaders Thursday abandoned a long struggle to strike a compromise on abortion in their ranks, gambling that they can secure the support for President Barack Obama’s sweeping health care legislation with showdown votes looming as early as next week.
In doing so, they are all but counting out a small but potentially decisive group whose views on abortion coverage have become the principal hang-up for Democrats fighting to achieve the biggest change in American health care in generations….
One of the toughest hurdles facing Pelosi involves abortion.
Others disagree, and party leaders acknowledged Thursday they can’t resolve the dispute using budget reconciliation rules….

louise slaughter.jpgOne final point worth mentioning, although I can’t imagine it’s realistic, is the newly proposed “Slaughter House Rule,” an idea by pro-abort Dem Louise Slaughter to pass the healthcare bill without voting on it. Can’t imagine that would ever happen, but Family Research Council has the scoop.
[Graphic via WSJ; Slaughter photo via FRC]

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