Cross posted on Illinoize.
The ILGOP thought Judy Baar Topinka’s entrance into the gubernatorial primary would “dramatically recast” the GOP’s prospects for recapturing the mansion.
But the ILGOP apparently did not consider that abortion proponents would oppose JBT in the general, thereby sealing the deal for Blagojevich.
Carole Marin agreed with that potential, saying Blagojevich’s flagging poll numbers mean he “has to draw a clear distinction between himself and Topinka… and one of the ways to do that is abortion.”
Actually, Personal PAC and Planned Parenthood will do all that for him, having already begun painting Topinka as a pro-life extremist, if you can believe that, at a November 29 press conference.
The Windy City Times reported that Personal PAC CEO Terry Cosgrove said Topinka has “intentionally misrepresent[ed] her abortion position as ‘pro-choice'” by voting to “[allow] husbands of domestic violence victims to have a say, [which is] out of step with the mainstream.” There will be much more of that.
Yellow Dog Democrat incompletely reported the results of the Tribune poll to make his case that any abortion debate will only take place in the Republican primary.
In actuality the Tribune/WGN-TV poll indicated a total of 42% of IL voters think there should be more or complete restrictions on abortion and 49% think restrictions should be lessened or remain the same. Thus, the divide is actually close, and abortion proponents, motivated to reelect a governor who gives them carte blanche, will work hard to sway swingers to their side.
(And while gays love Judy, signs point to gays ultimately lining up with Blagojevich.)
Here’s the point. The Trib’s Pearson reported the thinking of the ILGOP re: conservatives: “‘I think grudgingly they may go along,’ said one GOP leader. ‘They badly, badly want to beat Blagojevich.'”
How badly? The ILGOP always counts on conservatives ultimately agreeing to vote for the lesser of two evils. But even if so, “going along” certainly does not indicate motivation. Because the left would be motivated for Blagojevich and the trickle-down election of other Democrats – since most pro-abort/pro-gay candidates are Dems – JBT and the ILGOP would critically need the right’s motivation as well.
Thus, the ILGOP may win the primary battle but will lose the general election war, and JBT’s positions on abortion and special gay rights will be why. Even if JBT gets conservative votes, the right will not be there to volunteer at phone banks, walk precincts, and stuff envelopes – to provide the umph needed to push JBT to victory.
JBT is an enigma. She and the ILGOP have only two ways to promote her, either as someone who can out-Democrat Blagojevich, or as someone who is a right-moderate. Since neither the left nor the right believes either persona, JBT will lose.