SS SOS
This October 22 Townhall.com cartoon by Lisa Benson was just plain sad, even haunting.
They know not what they did. And now they will die because of those they killed.
Oct.24, 2007 8:02 am |
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Jill Stanek is a nurse turned speaker, columnist and blogger, a national figure in the effort to protect both preborn and postborn innocent human life.
“Gokhale and Smetters consulted exclusively with the Office of Management and Budget, Social Security administration and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid to obtain and produce the most accurate and up-to-date projections of future receipts and payments, including debt service.”
“The fiscal gap they calculated is $45 trillion”
That is 11x the current official national debt and 4x national output.
If we wait 15 years to address the issue it grows to $76 trillion
Paul O’neil, who commissioned the study, was fired and was replaced by John Snow.
The study was then yanked from Bush’s 2004 budget.
“Apparently it was to politically dangerous even to be hidden in the budget’s enormous appendix.
Snow’s sensitivity is understandable. Reporters might well have found the study. They might have asked the Treasury embarrassing questions like, “How much…is due to the president’s tax cuts?”
“This would hardly have helped the selling of Bush the second’s third major tax cut.”
quote from The Coming Generational Storm pp.65-67
by Laurence Kottlikoff and Scott Burns
MIT Press
Smetters report
http://www.aei.org/docLib/20030723_SmettersFinalCC.pdf
” …the condition for its publication was that it contain no visible trace to the Treasury.” -Laurence Kotlikoff
The cartoon is silly. It’s the heinous fiscal mismanagement and shenanigans of government that has hammered Social Security. Heck, the Baby Boomers have contributed plenty, unlike some earlier generations which contributed for a relatively short time before getting benefits for the rest of their lives.
The best deal was had by those in the 1930s who got signed into the program, only had to pay in for a few months, then got checks until they died.
Doug
Doug,
The best deal was had by those in the 1930s who got signed into the program, only had to pay in for a few months, then got checks until they died.
Doug
Posted by: Doug at October 24, 2007 9:14 AM
Life expectancy for those born in 1930 was about 60.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005148.html
For those retiring in 1930 we can assume it was the same or lower. Life expectancy for those who are already 60 is necessarily longer, but probably still not that long, do you think?
Collecting till they died, for most was not all that long.
You all unequivacably rebuff the suggestion that the deaths of 45-50 million taxpayers since 1973 has nothing to do with the SS crisis?
Oh I found it,
Life expectancy at age 60 in 1930 was about 75.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html
I was wrong, they were collecting for an average of 15 years.
Jill,
I sure think that the contribution of 45 million fully integrated americans would have contributed to every facet of society. We are all much poorer for having intentionally or tacitly allowed their destruction. I mourn their loss.
I have said before that some of the most wonderful contributions have come from those that no one believed in.
Hippie – you do have a point – people didn’t live as long. Still, though, relative to how long some were contributing, they got a lucky deal with SS.
If I start collecting when I’m 70, it’ll have been 53 years that I was paying in. Sheesh.
I can get it a little earlier, with somewhat reduced benefits, 66 years, 10 months, I think.
Sigh.
Doug
You all unequivacably rebuff the suggestion that the deaths of 45-50 million taxpayers since 1973 has nothing to do with the SS crisis?
Jill, nope, but they would not all be taxpayers, for starters. Some would be a net drain on the system, and so would their kids and possibly grandkids, already. Had there been no legal abortion, some of the resulting kids would be comparitively disadvantaged compared to the general population, and would be expected to contribute less to SS, overall.
If we want “more people” to pay into SS, then by far the best way to go is to admit emigrants from other countries in, people who are highly educated and motivated, people who will be highly paid, people who will start contributing right away.
The fiasco created by the gov’t’s taking the money and spending it cannot be solved by that, however, the game has gone on far too long and the numbers are too big. Debts the size of the US’s, which here includes the unfunded future liabilitities like SS. are never repaid. They are repudiated, either by a deflationary collapse and outright default, or by debasing the currency and paying the debt with money that is worth vastly less. The latter is the course we are on in the US.
Doug
The irony of the SS problem is that people think that their savings invested in the stock market will be a hedge. I doubt this sincerely. When huge numbers of people are constantly selling, the prices go down. So even if you retire with 5 million in stock, and don’t tap in for 5 years, you could lose 20-30% of your value because others are constantly selling and there are fewer buyers because workers are so heavily taxed that they can’t invest. Even the rich can’t buy up all the stock. They rich tried to save the stock market in 1929 and failed. We’ll see what happens next time.
SS was nothing but a pyramid scheme since its inception. While the abortion numbers are tragic and probably contributed to SS’s downfall, every pyramid scheme will eventually fail and deserves to. The underlying elitist assumption is that a bureaucracy in Washington can better manage your investments, retirement and old age care than you can. More infantilization of Americans.
Bev,
The underlying elitist assumption is that a bureaucracy in Washington can better manage your investments, retirement and old age care than you can.
Posted by: Bev C at October 24, 2007 10:44 AM
There is a segment of society that will have to rely on handouts during retirement and we will have to do something about it.
SS has major problems but so does private investing.
SS has low overhead, private investing has high overhead.
Plenty of people cannont manage their money well. This extremely well documented. The gov’t needs to care about them and do a better job, not just to help them but to avoid wasting the money of those contributing to their welfare.
I don’t love the idea of a nanny state but what do you do with irresponsible or low income folks in a very wealthy country?
Children born to people who never wanted them and don’t love them don’t grow up to be high-bracket taxpayers. They get incarcerated to the tune of $40,000 a year.
How many taxpayers have you produced? Certainly none of them have any intention of becoming homemakers?
Laura,
Oh good, you’re okay. Er, at least still alive. Or someone is posting under your name. Is everything okay?
What was Amy Grossberg’s excuse? She WAS a loved and wanted child! The little darling sat in the clink for 2 and 1/2 years. We footed the bill for the murderer.
They know not what they did. And now they will die because of those they killed.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No, as much as you’d like to see them die, they’re gonna be just fine.
(That really galls your azz, doesn’t it?)
Not every poor kid is going to the slammer. In fact, look at all of the wealthy spoiled brats in lock down.
Scott Peterson was loved and wanted. His parents stand by his side to this day.
Scott Peterson was raised by an alcoholic who gave away a bunch of his siblings. She was probably just too drunk the day he was born.
Every family has some dysfunction. Scott had a boat, car, nice wife, a baby on the way, a house. Yes this poor destitute guy had it soooo bad. How about the Menendez boys?
Laura,
Oh good, you’re okay. Er, at least still alive. Or someone is posting under your name. Is everything okay?
Posted by: Bobby Bambino at October 24, 2007 11:37 AM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’m in a great spot, but I’m having a heck of a time finding some friends.
It was kind of you to ask. Thank you.
Heather, when did I ever say POOR PEOPLE?
I specifically mention children born to people who didn’t want them and don’t love them. (By the way, a HUGELY disproportionate number of serial killers are adoptees. I’m not kidding….)
“but I’m having a heck of a time finding some friends.”
Well, I know this isn’t your thing, but I’ll be praying for them. I hope they’re okay, too.
Laura, let me say this. Amy Grossberg was very much a wanted child. Of all people, why did she pull a stunt like that? My point? Who can predict?
You all unequivacably rebuff the suggestion that the deaths of 45-50 million taxpayers since 1973 has nothing to do with the SS crisis?
Ohhhh… so that was your connection to abortion. I was wondering what straw you were grasping at this time.
Yes, I rebuff that suggestion. It is a rather one-dimensional suggestion on your part. You ignore so many other factors of the problem. Kind of like when you said abortions caused the nurse shortage (which is untrue–nursing schools have to turn away thousands of applicants every year because not enough people are willing to teach… not to mention that not all of those 45 million would have become nurses anyway).
Not to mention that a lot of those 45 million would have been aborted anyway, illegally. And some of the women who had those illegal abortions would have died from it.
Just because you outlaw smoking, it doesn’t stop people. If you outlaw abortions, abortions won’t stop. Why don’t you understand that?
Not to mention that that was nowhere near the point of the cartoon.
If you outlaw abortions, abortions won’t stop.
Upwards of 90% would. Moreover, we’d be living in a country that protects the weakest, smallest and most vulnerable rather than a country that dismembers them for money.
Upwards of 90% would
How in the world can you cite that figure? You have no way of knowing that.
Leah,
Some women who get legal abortions die as well.
Making abortion illegal would reduce it. It would be most effective if doctors lost their licenses and served jail time for illegal abortions. No providers means no service.
No one is responsible for lawbreakers. Making something illegal can, at most, reduce it. Dispensing pharmaceuticals without a prescription is illegal, yet it happens. We should not legalize it.
Laura,
Children born to people who never wanted them and don’t love them don’t grow up to be high-bracket taxpayers. They get incarcerated to the tune of $40,000 a year.
Posted by: Laura at October 24, 2007 11:35 AM
Some people who were abused and unwanted grow up to be very successful. I understand Oprah Winfrey had an unhappy time as a child, yet is a stunning success. Everyone deserves a chance. To me that opportunity is what makes America great.
Laura,
No, as much as you’d like to see them die, they’re gonna be just fine.
Posted by: Laura at October 24, 2007 11:39 AM
I hope they will be just fine. However in the past four years the dollar has lost around 35% of its value. If all my savings are in dollar denominated stocks, bonds and cash, I have lost 35%. In the short term it is not so painful because others can buy our stuff cheaper so they buy more. That also means we have to produce more for less. In the long term not so rosy. A continued weak dollar will cause inflation further devaluing our assets.
Hippie, good point. Oprah was raped and impregnated by her uncle. She gave birth to a stillborn at age 14. She didn’t allow it to destroy her.
Leah,
Look at abortion numbers prior to Roe. Look at the 1.4 million now. Do the math.
“If you outlaw abortions, abortions won’t stop.”
good point, we outlawed murder and it didn’t stop. let’s go back and make murder legal.
Also, rape, drug use, drunk driving, and child molestation.
Jacqueline– It’s because before Roe abortion was considered unacceptable. It is now accepted by society, and would be (I’m sure of it)readily available to women who wanted it, should it ever (heaven forbid) become illegal. Which it won’t.
Jasper–Murder has ALWAYS been illegal. That is an extraordinarily weak comparison. And anyhow, has murder stopped? Same with rape, drug use, drunk driving, etc…
Leah,
“It’s because before Roe abortion was considered unacceptable.”
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
This is partially true, and partially not.
If you check abortion statistics, you discover that about half are repeat customers. If you crunch the numbers, it comes out to less than about 15% have had an abortion. While that number is very large, it is nowhere near the number of people who have had sex outside of marriage. Unplanned pregnancy accounts for about 50% of all pregnancies. 21% of pregnancies end in abortion. That leaves 29% carried to term, some under very difficult circumstances. Why? because they can’t personally accept abortion. I don’t believe all of these women are total religious fanatics. They just don’t accept abortion. They just can’t do it.
I would say about 90% of the women I know have had an unplanned pregnancy, although most are married or got married.
You all unequivacably rebuff the suggestion that the deaths of 45-50 million taxpayers since 1973 has nothing to do with the SS crisis?
Considering that a sustainable SS system cannot possibly be based on a continually growing population (eventually you run out of resources to support additional people), and the fact that the population has exploded during the period in question, I reject as absurd the notion that the abortion rate in this country is in any way connected to the SS crisis.
Leah,
It’s because before Roe abortion was considered unacceptable. It is now accepted by society, and would be (I’m sure of it)readily available to women who wanted it, should it ever (heaven forbid) become illegal. Which it won’t.
Let’s supposed you are right, Leah and before Roe
abortion was considered unacceptable. Why? Because it was illegal. So you don’t think that once abortion is once again made illegal, that it would become unacceptable?
Furthermore, if doctors will become imprisoned and lose their license/livelihoods for aborting, who do to think is going to provide millions of women with shredded fetuses? Really, who?
Jacque, drinking was made illegal but it was still considered acceptable. During that period even more dangerous activities became acceptable. Acceptablity of an action/belief/idea changes with time. The use of pot in the US is still widely illegally aside from California breaking federal law and oferiing medicinal marijuana. However, many find it acceptable and many believe it should be legalized, years ago this wasn’t so, but that belief that it should be legal is catching more ground. Another example would be interracial marriage, which I feel needs no explanation. Or marrying outside your social class, or smoking, or any other number of actions/ideas. It all changes back and forth with time.
and also, no doctors means even more unsafe unlicensed people performing abortions, or women doing it to themselves.
and also, no doctors means even more unsafe unlicensed people performing abortions, or women doing it to themselves.
And how stupid must such women be?
You all unequivacably rebuff the suggestion that the deaths of 45-50 million taxpayers since 1973 has nothing to do with the SS crisis?
Posted by: Jill Stanek at October 24, 2007 9:47 AM
……………………………………………….
My father died in 1974. He was a tax payer. What his death has to do with never born non tax payers is bit beyond my comprehension. Does your crystal ball tell you that all aborted fetii would have been born to become contributers to elderly welfare?
The irony of the SS problem is that people think that their savings invested in the stock market will be a hedge. I doubt this sincerely. When huge numbers of people are constantly selling, the prices go down. So even if you retire with 5 million in stock, and don’t tap in for 5 years, you could lose 20-30% of your value because others are constantly selling and there are fewer buyers because workers are so heavily taxed that they can’t invest. Even the rich can’t buy up all the stock. They rich tried to save the stock market in 1929 and failed. We’ll see what happens next time.
Posted by: hippie at October 24, 2007 10:00 AM
………………………….
I could nicely retire on 30% of 5 mil. Very nicely.
Hippie: There is a segment of society that will have to rely on handouts during retirement and we will have to do something about it.
SS has major problems but so does private investing. SS has low overhead, private investing has high overhead.
Plenty of people cannont manage their money well. This extremely well documented. The gov’t needs to care about them and do a better job, not just to help them but to avoid wasting the money of those contributing to their welfare.
I don’t love the idea of a nanny state but what do you do with irresponsible or low income folks in a very wealthy country?
Hippie, you’ve had a lot of good comments in this thread, but I disagree with some of the above. SS has massive overhead – the bureaucracy itself. If people can actually manage to save money and invest it, there are mutual funds with fees well under 1% a year. SS is no where close to that league.
“Very wealthy country”? The US is by far the largest debtor nation in the world. The stated debt is about $30,000 for every person in America. Including future liabilities, like SS itself, it’s over $100,000 per person. Our trade deficit is around $60 billion per month. At this rate the entire US would be foreign-owned in roughly 70 or 80 years.
Doug
Rae,
There were 270 million in America in 1973.
There are now 300 million.
10% over 30 years is not a population explosion.
When the baby boomers start dying our population will start to shrink because our birthrate 2.1 is below replacement rate of 2.3
And how stupid must such women be?
HOW CAN YOU BE SO STUPID? Are you people absolutely blind? Women are not going into abortion clinics twirling their hair around their finders popping their gum and going “Yeah… I was thinking today would be a nice day to, like, get an abortion.”
Getting an abortion is NOT something done on a whim, you ignorant, ignorant girl! It is something done out of necessity! And it is a hard decision to make!!! Not that you people are making it any easier!
I know you think that women who go through abortions are all sin-filled sluts who deserve the hell they will apparently get after their deaths, but try and pull your heads out of the sand. No one is going all perky “Hey! How about I stick this coat hanger up my vagina!”
It’s not a question of stupidity. It’s a question of desperation, and women WILL put themselves in danger to get out of a desperate situation.
But don’t go making unfounded and completely idiotic accusations.
You all unequivacably rebuff the suggestion that the deaths of 45-50 million taxpayers since 1973 has nothing to do with the SS crisis?
Posted by: Jill Stanek at October 24, 2007 9:47 AM
yep. abortion doesn’t reduce the birth rate much, just delays the age some women have chilren.
and, no one I know is counting on SS to support them anyway. finally, making SS more secure is probably the worst reason I can think of to have a child. or 45 million of them.
Doug,
Yes very wealthy. US per capita GDP was over $44,000.
Only seven countries are higher, and all are very small countries five of which make their money from oil exports.
EU average GDP is just under $30,000.
Of course there are good investment opportunities. The problem is not everyone will do a good job managing their own money. The fact is some people don’t save and buy on credit and go bankrupt.
This is kind of like sex. Of course people can avoid STDs and pregnancy but many don’t, so then it becomes something of a public policy issue. How does society react to these people who can’t or won’t but anyhow don’t plan appropriately?
I am not going to say, screw ’em. Unfortunately civil society needs a sensible policy to help people who don’t make good decisions.
Hey Hal,
you wrote,
“yep. abortion doesn’t reduce the birth rate much, just delays the age some women have chilren.”
Posted by: Hal at October 24, 2007 8:17 PM
Did you see this in a study somewhere? I thought I heard this somewhere else, but maybe it was you on a different day.
This actually seems somewhat plausible.
A recent study showed that smokers said they would be less likely to quit if there were a cure for cancer.
Similarly, I worked in a middle school where kids got an hour of detention the very first time they were tardy, and in school suspension the second time. I had two tardies the whole year.
The higher price, the more careful the critter.
I’m not gonna lie, I don’t know squat about Social Security. I plan to make enough and have a good enough retirement plan to not need to use it. I hate those kind of economics, I can’t understand them for the life of me :-P
you say stupid, but at that point it really isn’t stupidity, but desperation that takes over.
Erin,
I don’t mean this mean and I hope you don’t take it the wrong way. Please, please learn how to manage and plan your finances. Just saving isn’t always enough. Since you are young and your future taxes will be sky high, maybe look at I-series savings bonds, or other ways to save that won’t be taxed later when you will be paying so much. Of course the gov’t gives you incentives to pay tax later because they will need more revenue in the future than they do now. Please don’t believe me. That’s right don’t believe me, check it our yourself.
I taught English briefly, and I couldn’t stand using so much time teaching people assonance, and alliteration when what they really needed was hard core knowledge about living and personal finance, and managing their affairs.
I hope you don’t think I am being rude, but please take some time to learn and prepare for what you will be facing. Even if it seems confusing, It really is important. I apologize in advance if I have offended you.
hippie- I know, I plan on it. I’m only 20 right now, and not making remotely enough to be worrying about it yet, but as soon as I’m salaried, I’m going to start in on figuring out all the bank stuff.
I hate economics though, They make me crazy.
Yes very wealthy. US per capita GDP was over $44,000. Only seven countries are higher, and all are very small countries five of which make their money from oil exports.
Hippie, that’s not what makes a “wealthy country.” We are still paying foreigners a lot more than they are paying us for stuff. Production is all fine and good, but is the wealth retained in the country? With the US, it’s decidedly not. Foreign ownership of US assets is on an incredible rise. If the US gov’t were run like a corporation, it’d be bankrupt a hundred times over.
……
Of course there are good investment opportunities. The problem is not everyone will do a good job managing their own money. The fact is some people don’t save and buy on credit and go bankrupt. This is kind of like sex. Of course people can avoid STDs and pregnancy but many don’t, so then it becomes something of a public policy issue. How does society react to these people who can’t or won’t but anyhow don’t plan appropriately? I am not going to say, screw ’em. Unfortunately civil society needs a sensible policy to help people who don’t make good decisions.
I see the rub as being between the fact that you correctly identify – that some people will screw up with money – and that gov’t running things is hardly a good solution.
Doug
There were 270 million in America in 1973. There are now 300 million. 10% over 30 years is not a population explosion. When the baby boomers start dying our population will start to shrink because our birthrate 2.1 is below replacement rate of 2.3
Holy Crow…
Hippie, respectfully, are you reading some less-than-accurate websites?
270 million was like 1998. Way back in 1973 it was just over 210 million as far as I remember. The US has had roughly a 43% population growth since 1973.
Heck, I was born in 1959 and the population was less than 180 million.
Doug
Doug,
If the 1973 U.S.population was 210 million people as you say, and it grew by 43%, as you say, then hippie’s figures are correct. (300,300 million people today, if my math is correct.) Right?
Leah says:
HOW CAN YOU BE SO STUPID? Are you people absolutely blind? Women are not going into abortion clinics twirling their hair around their finders popping their gum and going “Yeah… I was thinking today would be a nice day to, like, get an abortion.”
Getting an abortion is NOT something done on a whim, you ignorant, ignorant girl! It is something done out of necessity! And it is a hard decision to make!!! Not that you people are making it any easier!
I know you think that women who go through abortions are all sin-filled sluts who deserve the hell they will apparently get after their deaths, but try and pull your heads out of the sand. No one is going all perky “Hey! How about I stick this coat hanger up my vagina!”
It’s not a question of stupidity. It’s a question of desperation, and women WILL put themselves in danger to get out of a desperate situation.
But don’t go making unfounded and completely idiotic accusations.
No, Leah,
It is stupidity. Women and girls are allowing themseves be used and abused by society. The baby boomer generation of parents has really dropped the ball, and it’s never been more evident. What has happened to teaching your children self-respect, self-discipline, self-control, self-mastery? You sure aren’t going to hear about it from Planned Parenthood or the rest of the abortion industry.
I agree with you that girls are not twirling their hair and popping their gum, saying “I think I’ll get an abortion today”, but why aren’t they thinking before getting into bed with Tom,or Dick, or Harry, or whoever? Oh, right, we can’t control ourselves….The women’s libbers and feminists rally for so called, “reproductive rights” all in the name of “EMPOWERING” women. We, in the U.S. have pitted women against men and women against their own children. Is that really what women want and need?
The abortion providers could care less about women, men, or children. When are women going to wake up and smell the coffee?
Planned Parenthood claims there is no relationship between breast cancer risk and abortion, when study after study shows the opposite.
One Planned Parenthood site claims that there is less than a 1% chance of a major complication after a surgical abortion. They also say that there’s only a one percent chance of getting pregnant while using contraceptives properly. Well, if you got pregnant, odds are the same that you could be seriously injured by an abortion. Is your life worth so little? Hardly.
If the 1973 U.S.population was 210 million people as you say, and it grew by 43%, as you say, then hippie’s figures are correct. (300,300 million people today, if my math is correct.) Right?
Dear anonymous,
Yes, over 303 million people at present. But it certainly was much more than a 10% growth in population, i.e. it was 43% since Roe versus Wade.
Dougster