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Republicans could have a big year, but they need to win 40 House and 11 Senate seats to regain control of Congress. That’s a tall order….

Obama was elected with the strongest showing by a Democratic
presidential candidate in more than 30 years…. But
after battles over healthcare, a climate-change bill and hundreds of
billions in spending to spur the economy, it is Democrats who face a
backlash and Republicans who are campaigning on a promise of change….

The problem for Democrats is evident in polling, which shows a
precipitous slide in Obama’s job approval rating, from a high of about
80% before he took office to 48%…. The fortunes of the 2 major parties often rise
or fall with their leader in the White House: Bill Clinton, bruised by
his failed effort to pass healthcare reform
, had a 46% approval rating
in 1994 when Republicans took over Congress. Bush, plagued by the
unpopular war in Iraq, was at 38% when Democrats won control in 2006.

More worrisome for Democrats is the likelihood that many of their
voters will stay home. Turnout always falls in nonpresidential election
years, and that is why strategists closely gauge voter interest.
Repeated surveys have found Republicans much more animated than
Democrats; a

Wall Street Journal/NBC poll in mid-December found that
56% of Republicans were “very interested,” compared with 46% of
Democrats….

~ Los Angeles Times, January 1 (and really, that’s why Clinton’s popularity fell?)

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