It would be nice to know this isn’t a 1-way attempt to peel votes. Do we have any from our side working the Democrat members?
So if you do that, you have
201202 sure Yes votes, and 206 sure No votes (which includes all Republicans and 28 Democrats who have announced their intention to oppose). 13 12 members are still completely undecided. 4 who voted No last time…
Brian Baird, Jim Matheson, Glenn Nye, John Tanner
And 9 who voted Yes last time:
Melissa Bean, Chris Carney, Bill Foster, Paul Kanjorski, Solomon Ortiz,
Bill Owens, Earl Pomeroy, Zack Space, Mike Michaud
(UPDATE: Bill Owens will vote Yes. So it’s down to 12 undecideds, from 13)
If Speaker Pelosi were to get every single 1 of these votes – and that’s a tall order – she would still need 2 members from the confirmed Stupak bloc….
This confirmation comes from the names on the enrollment corrections bill from last night, and also Joe Donnelly and Jerry Costello, whose public statements leading up to the vote put them squarely in the Stupak camp. There’s some question as to whether Chris Carney belongs there as well, but his name didn’t appear on the list, and he’s wavered enough in public statements that I’ll keep him undecided. These are the Stupak 11:
Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Jerry Costello, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus, Marcy Kaptur, Dan Lipinski, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall
So if the deal is dead, Pelosi needs everyone in the 1st 2 categories and 2 from the Stupak bloc. If she can peel off more from the Stupak bloc, it gives her room with the undecideds. The only other option would be to try and flip one of the sure No votes, like Stephen Lynch or Mike Arcuri. Expect the 2 committee chairs voting No, Collin Peterson and Ike Skelton, to get a lot of attention.
Given those odds, you can see why she explored the Stupak deal. But pro-choice women apparently slapped it down so soundly, that the path of least resistance is now this agonizing trek to peel off enough votes to get to 216.